Multivariate birth-and-death processes as approximations to epidemic processes
- 1 March 1973
- journal article
- Published by Cambridge University Press (CUP) in Journal of Applied Probability
- Vol. 10 (1) , 15-26
- https://doi.org/10.2307/3212492
Abstract
This paper presents the theory of a multivariate birth-and-death process and its representation as a branching process. The bivariate linear birth-and-death process may be used as a model for various epidemic situations involving two types of infective. Various properties of the transient process are discussed and the distribution of epidemic size is investigated. For the case of a disease spread solely by carriers when the two types of infective are carriers and clinical infectives the large population version of a model proposed by Downton (1968) is further developed and shown under appropriate circumstances to closely approximate Downton's model.Keywords
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