Relationship Between Cardiovascular Risk as Predicted by Established Risk Scores Versus Plaque Progression as Measured by Serial Intravascular Ultrasound in Left Main Coronary Arteries

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Abstract
Background— Intravascular ultrasound (IVUS) is increasingly used as an end point in studies aimed at reducing progression or inducing regression of coronary artery disease. However, data linking serial changes by IVUS with clinical outcomes are scarce. Methods and Results— In the absence of a validated risk score for secondary prevention, we compared 3 established risk scores for primary prevention—PROCAM, SCORE, and Framingham—with plaque progression and lumen reduction as assessed with serial IVUS (follow-up, 18±9 months) in atherosclerotic left main coronary arteries of 56 patients with established atherosclerosis. For all 3 algorithms, patients at highest estimated risk of events showed greater plaque progression than patients at lowest risk ( P r =0.41 to 0.60; P P P Conclusions— There was a positive linear relationship between the estimated risk of clinical events derived from all 3 established risk-score algorithms and the extent of plaque progression measured by serial IVUS. This translated into stenosis progression (reduction in lumen dimensions) with increasing clinical risk.

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