Observation Systems in Program Evaluation

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Abstract
In spite of the appearance of a large literature dealing with the limitations of conventional statistical significance testing, social researchers in many fields persist in making extensive use of it. It may be that the researchers see no alternative. Relative likelihood analysis, a comparatively unknown form of applied probability theory, is for most problems a superior alternative to significance testing since it makes possible simultaneous evaluation of the plausibility of families of hypotheses concerning one or more statistical parameters. This article provides a brief introduction to the main elements in relative likelihood analysis, with application to problems in evaluation research.

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