Calculating Probabilities that Cladograms Match: A Method of Biogeographical Inference

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Abstract
The attempt to calculate a null probability for a given degree of matching among a set of phylogenetic area cladograms (or between a cladogram representing a geographic hypothesis and a set of phylogenetic area cladograms) is a key advance in historical biogeography. It leads to strong inferences about the means by which different groups achieved their current ranges. However, the appropriate procedure for calculating the probability has yet to be determined. For sets of small cladograms the underlying considerations of probability seem straightforward if two cladograms are scored as either matching completely or failing to match. If two large cladograms are not identical but seem similar, it would seem perverse to score them as “not matching.” A possible null hypothesis would be that the degree of matching is no greater than would be expected for independently derived cladograms. For large cladograms, it is not at all obvious from visual inspection whether two cladograms share an improbably high number of features. Large systematic cladograms are likely to have errors and/or to be incomplete. Even though it is currently impossible to assign probabilities to particular construction errors, probabilities of cladogram matching can still be calculated if one posits some conventions.

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