Seismotectionic prognosticating and regionalizing of North-East Bulgaria

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Abstract
The working out of a long-term seismotectonic prognostication map for the value of Mmax in NE Bulgaria is based on a complex of geological, geophysical and seismological characteristics, describing the properties of the medium and the geodynamic situation. Algorithms for pattern recognition by means of the utilized characteristics formalization were applied, namely CORA-3, HAM and HAM with weight coefficients. The new method affords the possibility to divide the investigated territory in zones with different values of Mmax. The final results have been compared with the values presented in prognostication maps prepared by other methods – by means of SSZ and interval expert assessments approximation. Forecasted values lower than the existing ones were obtained in some regions. According to the seismotectonic prognostication the area of NE Bulgaria has been divided into districts. Three hazardous zones with higher potential seismic activity have been distinguished and characterized: the Gorna Orjahovitsa, Shoumen and Kaliakra ones. In the remaining part of the territory comparatively weak earthquakes are likely to be generated (M < 4).

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