Modeling the Survival of Escherichia coli O157:H7 in Uncooked, Semidry, Fermented Sausage

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Abstract
The data collected from studies to monitor inactivation of Escherichia coli O157:H7 in uncooked fermented salami were used to develop models to describe survival of the organism. Three models were developed that included different variables to best describe E. coli O157:H7 reduction. Model A included the variables water activity (aw), pH, time, and quadratic variables pH and time. Model B separated the processing stages into fermentation and drying. The fermentation included the variables pH and temperature × time (ttarea) and interaction between the two variables. The drying stage was modeled using the variables time and aw and interaction between the two. Model C looked at variables aw and the time at pH 5.3 to achieve a 2-D log reduction of E. coli O157:H7 and the interaction between the variables. The variables selected for inclusion in all the models were significant at the P < 0.0001 level. The predicted values for all models correlated well to the observed values with R2 of 0.888, 0.828, 0.836, and 0.818 for models A, Bferm, Bdrying, and C, respectively. The models were validated using data from a trial not used to develop the model. In general the predicted reduction in E. coli O157:H7 count in uncooked fermented salami was greater than for the observed E. coli O157:H7 log reductions for all models, but the relation between the two was linear. The results demonstrate that modeling can be a useful tool in assessing manufacturing practices for uncooked fermented salami processes.