The Estimation of the Mean and Variance of a “PERT” Activity Time
- 1 June 1965
- journal article
- Published by Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS) in Operations Research
- Vol. 13 (3) , 382-385
- https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.13.3.382
Abstract
An alternative method of estimating the variance of a PERT activity time is proposed given that one of the initial estimates is the mean. The beta-distribution of the activity time is assumed to be tangential to the x-axis at each end. Restrictions in the current method are relaxed, and the inconsistency of the implicit assumption of a fixed coefficient of skew removed. The skew of the distribution is determined by the three estimates of the activity time. No difficult computations are involved.Keywords
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