A Mathematical Model of Forest Succession and Land Use for the North Carolina Piedmont

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Abstract
A liner, constant-coefficient compartment model was constructed to simulate temporal changes in the areal extent of major forest types in the North Carolina Piedmont [USA]. Model structure and transfer coefficients were derived from published ecological literature and available USDA [United States Department of Agriculture] Forest Service statistical summaries. The results show the importance of old-field abandonment to the perpetuation of extensive loblolly pine (Pinus taeda) forests in the Piedmont. If abandonment ceased, post-harvest treatment and planting of loblolly pine would be increased considerably over current levels to maintain an extensive loblolly pine forest type. Extrapolation of current rates of change forward 250 yr would result in a sizeable increase in the area of loblolly pine and loblolly pine-oak types, a slight increase in oak-hickory, a sizeable decline in shortleaf and Virginia pine (P. echinata, P. virginiana, respectively) types and a slight decline for other mixed pine-hardwood, lowland and dry upland hardwood categories compared to current conditions. The technique can be a useful tool either to assess some long-term effects of present management and use trends or to suggest strategies necessary to obtain a desired regional mixture of forest types.