CONSISTENCY OF CAUSAL ATTRIBUTIONS FOR EXPECTED AND ACTUAL EXAMINATION OUTCOME: A STUDY OF THE EXPECTANCY CONFIRMATION AND EGOTISM MODELS

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Abstract
Summary. The expectancy confirmation and egotism models of causal attributions for success and failure were investigated with 400 fifth form students taking the New Zealand School Certificate English examination. Attributions for expected exam outcome and actual exam outcome were assessed with a scale containing 33 items categorised into the attribution dimensions of stability and locus of causality. The results suggested that exam outcome attributions are a function of both expectancy confirmation and valence of actual outcome, with the effects being due primarily to subjects whose expectations for passing were disconfirmed by actual failure. Compared to pre‐exam attributions based on expected outcome, these disconfirmed failure subjects reduced post‐exam attributions to internal (stable and unstable) and external stable causes, but increased their attributions to external unstable causes. Where expectations were confirmed (pass or fail) attributions from pre‐ to post‐exam were generally consistent; however, the confirmed pass subjects tended to see internal factors as more important than the other subjects, and external unstable factors as least important. The findings are discussed in terms of the implications for future achievement situations.

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