Estimates Of Health Care Professional Shortages In Sub-Saharan Africa By 2015
- 1 January 2009
- journal article
- Published by Health Affairs (Project Hope) in Health Affairs
- Vol. 28 (5) , w849-w862
- https://doi.org/10.1377/hlthaff.28.5.w849
Abstract
This paper uses a forecasting model to estimate the need for, supply of, and shortage of doctors, nurses, and midwives in thirty-nine African countries for 2015, the target date of the United Nations Millennium Development Goals. We forecast that thirty-one countries will experience needs-based shortages of doctors, nurses, and midwives, totaling approximately 800,000 health professionals. We estimate the additional annual wage bill required to eliminate the shortage at about $2.6 billion (2007 $US)—more than 2.5 times current wage-bill projections for 2015. We illustrate how changes in workforce mix can reduce this cost, and we discuss policy implications of our results.Keywords
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