Regime switching in stock market returns
- 1 April 1997
- journal article
- Published by Taylor & Francis in Applied Financial Economics
- Vol. 7 (2) , 177-191
- https://doi.org/10.1080/096031097333745
Abstract
In this paper, we use an extension of Hamilton's (1989) Markov switching techniques todescribe and analyze stock market returns. Using new tests, we find very strong evidence ofswitching behaviour. A major innovation of our work is to use a multivariate specification whichallows us to examine whether the price-dividend ratio has marginal predictive power for stockmarket returns after accounting for state-dependent switching. We find strong evidence ofpredictability. The response of returns ...Keywords
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