The Effect of Changes in Mortality Rates on Population Growth and Age Distribution in the United States

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Abstract
In the first part of this century, mortality improvement only slightly effected age composition in the direction of a younger population. It was an. important factor in the growth of the population and created the potentiality for very rapid growth in the furture by bringing proportion of those surviving from birth to parenthood close to 100%. For the latter part of the century, any general mortality improvement will make the population older but will have very slight effect on population growth. Fertility is the chief determinant of age structure and in the future will be the sole determinant of population growth. In the USA with fertility largely under voluntary control, the level of fertility will apparently vary with social and economic conditions. A changing age structure and fluctuating growth are likely, with periods of aging alternating with periods of rejuvenation, and with sporadic spurts and lulls in the rate of increase.

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