Proxy evidence for an El Niño-like response to volcanic forcing

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Abstract
Past studies have suggested a statistical connection between explosive volcanic eruptions and subsequent El Niño climate events1,2. This connection, however, has remained controversial3,4,5. Here we present support for a response of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon6,7 to forcing from explosive volcanism by using two different palaeoclimate reconstructions of El Niño activity8,9 and two independent, proxy-based chronologies of explosive volcanic activity5 from ad 1649 to the present. We demonstrate a significant, multi-year, El Niño-like response to explosive tropical volcanic forcing over the past several centuries. The results imply roughly a doubling of the probability of an El Niño event occurring in the winter following a volcanic eruption. Our empirical findings shed light on how the tropical Pacific ocean–atmosphere system may respond to exogenous (both natural and anthropogenic) radiative forcing.