Numerical modelling of the historic front variation and the future behaviour of the Pasterze glacier, Austria

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Abstract
An ice-flow model is used to simulate the front variations of the Pasterze glacier, Austria. The model deals explicitly with the ice flux from sub-streams and tributaries to the main ice stream. The dynamic calibration method adopted successfully calibrates the ice-flow model under a non-steady-state condition. Despite the complexity of the glacier geometry, the ice dynamics of the Pasterze are adequately simulated. Results of the sensitivity experiments suggest that the Pasterze glacier has been in a non-steady state most of the time and has a response time of 34–50 years. Projections of the behaviour of the Pasterze in the next 100 years are made under various climate scenarios. Results suggest that the Pasterze will undergo a substantial retreat if there is future warming. The glacier is likely to retreat 2–5 km by the year 2100. The ice volume could be reduced by 24–63% by the end of the 21st century.

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