Risk of drought and future water requirements on a regional scale

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Abstract
The main parameters controlling the development and conservation of water resources are water availability and water requirements. A dynamic comparison between these parameters on a time scale provides the necessary criteria for planning a long‐term water policy. A dry period exists when availability is less than water demand, and drought is defined as a run of continuous dry periods. Expected drought severity, defined as total cumulative deficits during a drought, represents the future water requirements needed to assure an equilibrium in the water plan. This study analyses the probable future requirements as well as the potential risk of water shortages for several levels of demand in the province of Madrid, in Spain.

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