Probabilities for an Alternative Explanation of the Moving Magnetic Monopole

The cosmic-ray track that has been interpreted as a magnetic monopole may in principle be from a nucleus that underwent nuclear interactions. The a priori probability of this latter process is calculated to be ∼${10}^{-13\mathrm{}}$ if the particle moved at the reported velocity of $<0.6c$, but rises to ∼${10}^{-3\mathrm{}}$ if $0.7c$ is allowed. Among the number of cosmic rays already examined, the total predicted probabilities for observing such an interacting event would have been <7×${10}^{-13\mathrm{}}$ at $<0.6c$ and ∼2% at $0.7c$.