Passing the Test

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Abstract
Ecological regression analysis has successfully estimated minority and White voting behavior in jurisdictions throughout the United States. Critics have imposed assumptions on the technique that are far too restrictive and have misinterpreted relevant data from Los Angeles County. Ecological regression is more reliable than the "neighborhood model, " devised by defendants' experts for the Los Angeles litigation. Unlike ecological regression, the neighborhood model generates results that are an arbitrary function of how individuals are grouped into precincts: the classic form of the "ecological fallacy. " Ecological regression, not the neighborhood model, accounts for the actual results of elections in Los Angeles County.

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