Estimating death rates from transect counts

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Abstract
The time course of abundance of adult insects emerging in discrete generations is modelled, assuming the absence of net migration and a constant death rate. The time till emergence is assumed to be logistically distributed. The qualitative features of the model depend on one dimensionless parameter only, namely the product of the death rate and a dispersion measure for the symmetric emergence distribution. The model is fitted to data on the abundance of five butterfly species. The tit is excellent; moreover, the estimated death rates are well within the range given in the literature (mostly 0.1–0.2 day‐1). Death rates are generally obtained by mark‐recapture methods. The present model gives the opportunity to evaluate some assumptions of these methods.