Estimating and projecting the populations of urban communities

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Abstract
The author describes a model for estimating and projecting the populations of communities living in small areas within cities. The model provides a means of updating the demographic inputs needed for projection between censuses and means of developing scenarios of demographic change and housing development. The method for estimating small-area populations between censuses is evaluated with recently published 1991 Census data. Single-year age-group detail is provided and the associated databases are embedded in a flexible user interface. Illustrative projections are discussed and interpreted for the northern English city of Bradford.

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