Structural-Equation Models of Migration: An Example from the Upper Midwest USA

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Abstract
To date, most migration models have been specified in terms of a single equation, whereby a set of regional characteristics are used to predict migration rates for various kinds of spatial units. These models are inadequate in at least two respects. First, they omit any causal links between the explanatory variables, thus ignoring indirect effects between these variables and migration. Second, they ignore the possibility of reciprocal causation, or feedback effects, between migration and the explanatory variables, even though it can be taken as axiomatic that although regional characteristics undoubtedly influence migration patterns, the reverse is also equally true. With the use of data for State Economic Areas, a path model and simultaneous-equation model are constructed to identify explicitly both indirect and feedback effects in the Upper Midwest USA. On the basis of the path model, it is suggested that the direct effects of many variables on migration are at least partially offset by the indirect effects, whereas the simultaneous-equation model emphasizes the reciprocal relationship between income and migration.

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