Seasonally induced chaotic dynamics and their implications in models of plant disease

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Abstract
Two models of plant disease in crops regulated by a virus disease or by a hyperparasite are introduced. If the host crop is annually harvested or dies back, the pathogen population at the end of each year may fluctuate indefinitely and irregularly in a way which depends very precisely and for ever on the initial populations. This means that even in an environment which is identical every year, the pathogen populations in each year vary enormously and erratically. However, the combinations of pathogen and virus incidence or hyperparasite infection that can occur exhibit very well defined patterns, even if parameters in the model exhibit substantial random annual variation. It is important that pathologists should be aware that population fluctuations may not be caused by environmental fluctuations and may be, in principle, unpredictable by a deterministic model.
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