Positive illusions in golf: Empirical and conceptual analyses

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Abstract
The apparent prevalence and impact of cognitive biases (e.g., positive illusions) during planning by golfers was examined in two studies. In Study I, club selections used by 171 golfers (133 men, 38 women; M Handicap = 20.8, SD = 8.6) for initial tee shots were compared with club selections used when golfers were offered a second ball to hit following a conservative (and realistic) plan for shot selection. Second shots, following the conservative plan, were vastly superior to those observed when golfers used their initial plans. In addition, comparison of club selections for the conservative plan to club selections used for the initial plan suggested that approximately 80% of the golfers may have used poor planning for their initial tee shots. In Study II, 184 golfers (155 men, 29 women, M Handicap = 22.4, SD = 8.1) were randomly assigned to use their own planning strategy (Control group) or to follow a realistic and conservative plan (Experimental group). In accord with hypotheses based on Study I, 83% of participants in the Control group demonstrated questionable planning when selecting clubs for their initial tee shots. Golfers in the Experimental condition also hit significantly better tee shots than their counterparts in the Control group. These results suggest that many golfers of diverse skill levels may use positive illusions when planning their shots. Discussion includes proposed methods to counteract the potentially adverse consequences of cognitive biases on sport performance.