Development and Evaluation of a General Model for Yield Loss Assessment in Potatoes

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Abstract
A general model for yield loss assessment in potatoes [Solamum tuberosum] was developed and parameterized for early blight [Alternaria solani] and light blight [Phytophthora infestans]. Disease-induced losses for any given crop are predicted relative to a reference crop. Loss is a function of the difference in the relative area under the disease progress curves (RAUDPC) among these crops multiplied by the effect of disease of bulking rate. RAUDPC calculation is based on integrating disease severity over the period of yield accumulation and weighing each chronological day by its relative contribution to host growth. Seventy-one epidemics of early blight or late blight that developed in Freeville, NY (USA) where the model''s parameters were estimated, and 53 epidermis from other growing areas or from epidemics having both pathogens simultaneously in Freeville, NY, were used as independent data sets for evaluating the predictions of the model. Differences between predicted and observed losses ranged from -11.2 to 8.1% and were less than 5% in 80% of the cases.