An Econometric Model for Forecasting Regional Population Growth
- 1 April 1981
- journal article
- Published by SAGE Publications in International Regional Science Review
- Vol. 6 (1) , 53-70
- https://doi.org/10.1177/016001768100600104
Abstract
An econometric model for forecasting net migration and natural increase is proposed and then estimated using time-series data for Texas. The model is simulated five years out-of-sample and found to be quite accurate in forecasting future population growth. It outperforms simpler prediction methods, thus indicating that explicit modeling of net migration and natural increase is superior to modeling only total population.Keywords
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