Size of Outbreaks Near the Epidemic Threshold

Preprint

1 February 2004

preprint
Published by arXiv in arXiv

https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.q-bio/0402001

Abstract

The spread of infectious diseases near the epidemic threshold is investigated. Scaling laws for the size and the duration of outbreaks originating from a single infected individual in a large susceptible population are obtained. The maximal size of an outbreak n_* scales as N^{2/3} with N the population size. This scaling law implies that the average outbreak size scales as N^{1/3}. Moreover, the maximal and the average duration of an outbreak grow as t_* ~ N^{1/3} and ~ ln N, respectively.

Keywords

DISEASES NEAR THE EPIDEMIC
INFECTIOUS DISEASES
EPIDEMIC THRESHOLD
POPULATION SIZE
MAXIMAL SIZE
SCALING LAW
OUTBREAK
INFECTED

All Related Versions

Version 1, 2004-02-01, ArXiv
Published version: Physical Review E, 69 (5), 050901.

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