Bulk Power Area Reliability Evaluation Considering Propabilistic Transfer Capability

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Abstract
This paper describes a method proposed for use in the PJM pool to evaluate the adequacy of inter-area transfer capability. The method considers the generating capacity deficiency of an area and transfer capability into that area as random variables to determine the area loss of load expectation. Loss of load in an area may result from two conditions: (1) available generating capacity is less than load coupled with inadequate transfer capability into the area, or (2) additional generating capacity is not started promptly when economy imports are curtailed due to tripping of key transmission lines. The proposed method considers both these conditions. The method is applied to the IEEE Reliability Test System for illustration.

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