A 20-year longitudinal study of 207 normal aged persons found that their total chance of institutionalization sometime before death was about one in four. Factors increasing the need for institutionalization were living alone, being never married or being separated, having none or few children, and being female. Factors increasing access to institutions were adequate finances, education, and being white. In contrast to the prevalence rate, total chance of institutionalization does not increase with age.