PREDICTION OF THE MOTION OF OIL SPILLS IN CANADIAN ARCTIC WATERS

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Abstract
An oil spill movement prediction model operating as part of a real-time Environmental Prediction Support System for the Canadian Beaufort Sea has been developed. The present version of the model considers spills only in open waters, that is, the sea surface is considered to be ice free. The model has been partially verified with data obtained from oil simulation experiments conducted in the Bay of Fundy, off the east coast of Canada during the months of August and September, 1978. With the use of observed winds, the model-predicted locations of “Orion” buoys used to simulate the motion of oil on water, agreed fairly well with their observed locations. These verification tests also pointed out the need for high resolution surface wind forecasts — essential data for computing wind-driven water currents which move the oil.

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