Sample size and the revision of subjective probabilities.

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Abstract
This experiment investigates the relation between subjective probability and mathematical probability. Bayes'' theorem provides the correct revision of probabilities as a result of new data. New data, however, may come in different sized samples. This experiment measured the accuracy of subjective probability revision as a function of sample size. The results show that accuracy decreases as sample size increases; the functionis negatively accelerated. The gain in amount of data processed by increasing the sample size is at the expense of accuracy.

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