Population dynamics of the sugarcane borer, Eldana saccharina Walker (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae), in Natal, South Africa

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Abstract
Infestations of the sugarcane pest Eldana saccharina Walker have been consistently serious in one part of the cane-growing belt of Natal, South Africa. Mortality in this region over seven years was estimated from moth catches in light traps, checked against population change measured from extensive larval counts, and plotted against climatic indices. The object was to construct a predictive model to illustrate mortality in other regions of the cane belt, to which infestations have spread in recent years. The spread southwards along the coast did not seem to have resulted from a decrease in natural mortality, but the spread to higher altitudes appeared to be due to lower mortality associated with warmer and drier years. The phenology of the insect and the effect of the annual harvesting cycle on phenology are discussed.

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