Ten Years of Consumer Attitude Surveys: Their Forecasting Record

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Abstract
Since 1951 the Survey Research Center has conducted surveys of consumer optimism and confidence two to four times a year in an attempt to improve methods of forecasting discretionary spending by consumers. The predictive success of these attitude surveys is tested here in conjunction with a number of financial variables by means of time series regressions covering the years 1952–61. The results indicate that attitude measurements contain information not obtainable from a simple combination of financial and business cycle indicators. The explanatory value of the Survey Research Center Index of Consumer Attitudes is consistently good in the sense that a number of alternative formulations of the time series regressions lead to the same conclusion: Attitudes contribute significantly to our ability to account for fluctuations in durable goods spending, particularly spending on new cars, after allowance is made for changes in the financial situation of consumers.

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