A Review of Factors Limiting the Kirtland's Warbler on its Breeding Grounds

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Abstract
Previous discussion about factors limiting the population of Kirtland''s warbler has centered about nesting success and adult mortality in winter. I present a review and synthesis of published and unpublished reports on Kirtland''s warbler demography which suggests that this species may also be regulated by habitat maturation and fragmentation, pairing success, fledgling mortality and breeding dispersal. Only 85% of male Kirtland''s warblers may pair successfully, though this low pairing success is offset somewhat by polygyny. Estimates of fledgling mortality (30%) and pairing success are combined with published data on Kirtland''s warbler productivity (3.1 young/pair) and adult survivorship (75%) to calculate annual recruitment of yearlings (28%) assuming a static population. Kirtland''s warblers are concentrated into a few large breeding areas, each of which provides suitable habitat for only 10-14 years. The growth and decline of these "colonies" is described from a comprehensive, 13-year population count. For the short term, regenerating habitat may not be sufficient to replace currently occupied maturing stands, and a habitat shortfall is predicted for 1986-1987.

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