Warnings in the International Event Flow: EFI and ROZ as Threat Indicators

Abstract
A series of computer studies done on a ten year collection of international event reports (WEIS type, 78,956 records) traces nine high tension episodes of world affairs in the period 1966-75. Early warning indications are pointed out, the duration and scope of the episodes are charted, and conclusions are drawn on the directions of overall international activity in the period. Some practical applications and some improvements of techniques are suggested.

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