The Influence of Total Nest Failures and Partial Losses on the Evolution of Asynchronous Hatching

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Abstract
According to Clark and Wilson''s model, the ratio of laying-period mortality to fledging-period mortality and the degree of partial loss within broods predict at what point in the laying sequence incubation should begin. The absolute survivorship levels are not important. Their model predicts less synchrony than is observed in nature, and assumes that partial loss within broods is completely independent of the point in the laying sequence at which incubation begins. I modified their model to make the probability of partial loss increase slightly with increasing asynchrony. The modified model suggests that the absolute values of survivorship, the degree of partial loss, and the difference in the rate of partial loss are critical for determining the optimal start of incubation. This model suggests the optimal pattern may be to begin incubation with the penultimate egg.