Swinging sun, 79‐year cycle, and climatic change∗∗

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Abstract
The secular cycle of solar activity is related to the sun's oscillatory motion about the center of mass of the solar system. Comparatively short periods of revolution with relatively high rates of curvature constitute a potential for crucial values of the time integral of torque ?L = ? t1 t0 τ (t) dt which seem to give rise to a weak but long lasting flow of solar plasma that modulates short‐term flow due to the dynamo effect. Relatively strong impulses of the torque ?L occur at mean intervals of 19.86 years. Four consecutive impulses respectively define a permanent wave with a quasiperiod of 79.46 years which determines the distribution of positive and negative extrema in activity. Phases of 0° or 90° indicate a potential for peaks and phases of 180° or 270° can lead to troughs. Such potentials are actually released if ? L transgresses a definite threshold value. The ensuing interval variations in the secular cycle are verified by records of sunspots and aurorae dating back to the 4th century AD. Rare activity‐deficient periods like the Maunder Minimum, which according to Eddy et al. are related to changes in the Earth's climate, solely occur when ? L reaches exceptional values meeting a special criterion. This is confirmed by radiocarbon data going back to the 6th millenimum BC. The next minimum in the 79‐year cycle will occur in 1990. It will be more pronounced than the minimum in 1811.

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