Temporal Patterns of Ventricular Tachyarrhythmia Recurrences Follow a Weibull Distribution

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Abstract
Temporal patterns of ventricular tachyarrhythmias. The objective of this study was to test whether the temporal patterns of ventricular tachyarrhythmia recurrences in patients with implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) follow a random or a clustered distribution. Data analysis was conducted using the Medtronic (Minneapolis, MN) Gem DR database of 521 ICD patients. Patients with >or=3 sustained ventricular tachyarrhythmia detections that resulted in shock or antitachycardia pacing therapies were studied. The times between consecutively treated ICD detections for each patient were compared to an exponential model of random recurrences and a Weibull model for clustered recurrences. Seventy-one patients had >or=3VT episodes during follow-up of 131+/-86 days. A total of 2347 VT episodes were recorded (33+/-65 episodes/patient, median 10 episodes/patient). Patient age was 66+/-13 years, 78% male, 83% coronary artery disease, ejection fraction 31+/-11%, and 63% were taking antiarrhythmic drugs. By the Kolmogorov-Smirnov goodness-of-fit test, 38 of 71 patients (53.5%) showed that the pattern of detections differed from an exponential model (Por=2, >or=3, >or= 4, >or=6, >or=8, and >or=10 ICD detections in a 24-hour period was 10.5%, 9.5%, 8.1%, 7.0%, 6.3%, and 5.2%, respectively. In most patients with >or=3 ICD detections, the recurrence pattern of treated ventricular tachyarrhythmia detections are clustered and can be described by a Weibull distribution. The proportion of patients with multiple detections in a 24-hour period declines in a linear fashion as the number of events in 24 hours increases from 2 to 10 events.