A Note on the Use of Local Maxima to Predict Turning Points in Related Series
- 1 September 1985
- journal article
- research article
- Published by JSTOR in Journal of the American Statistical Association
- Vol. 80 (391) , 553
- https://doi.org/10.2307/2288468
Abstract
This article deals with the issue of to what extent local maxima of one time series can be used to predict the turning points of other series of interest. It is argued that the theory of high-level crossings is the appropriate framework to handle such issues. The article then defines precisely the notion of a turning point and introduces a test for investigating the predictive value of the U.S. leading-indicator series.Keywords
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