The Use of General Circulation Models to Predict Regional Climatic Change

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Abstract
Equilibrium simulations using the best-available general circulation models to estimate the sensitivity of the climate to a doubling of the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration are in broad general agreement that the global annual average surface air temperature would increase 2.5 to 4.5 K. However, at finer spatial scales, the range of changes in temperature and precipitation predicted by different computer models is much broader. Many shortcomings are also apparent in the model simulations of the present climate, indicating that further model improvements are needed to achieve reliable regional and seasonal projections of the future climatic conditions. Abstract Equilibrium simulations using the best-available general circulation models to estimate the sensitivity of the climate to a doubling of the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration are in broad general agreement that the global annual average surface air temperature would increase 2.5 to 4.5 K. However, at finer spatial scales, the range of changes in temperature and precipitation predicted by different computer models is much broader. Many shortcomings are also apparent in the model simulations of the present climate, indicating that further model improvements are needed to achieve reliable regional and seasonal projections of the future climatic conditions.

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