The outcome of a general spatial epidemic on the line
- 1 March 1983
- journal article
- research article
- Published by Cambridge University Press (CUP) in Journal of Applied Probability
- Vol. 20 (04) , 715-727
- https://doi.org/10.1017/s0021900200024037
Abstract
The general (non-spatial) stochastic epidemic is extended to allow infective individuals to move forward through a system of spatially connected locations · ··, L 1, L 2, · ·· (on the line) each containing susceptible individuals and the outcome of the epidemic in each of these locations is then considered. In the deterministic case, a (spatial) equilibrium solution and threshold behaviour are discussed. In the stochastic case, a (spatial) quasi-equilibrium behaviour (conditional on sufficient numbers of infectives present) is discussed; numerical results suggest some correspondence between this stochastic quasi-equilibrium and the deterministic equilibrium.Keywords
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