A Mathematical Projection of Population Growth in the Copan Valley, Honduras, A.D. 400-800

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Abstract
Demographers use mathematical projections to estimate both future and past population in areas where they lack quality data. Such projections may be very useful in archaeological situations. In this analysis, we mathematically project population growth rates from Classic Maya settlement in the Copán Valley, Honduras, from A.D. 650-800 backward to A.D. 450 to estimate valley population levels during the Middle Classic. Projections based on the growth rate (r = .0098) that best describes Late Classic growth yield population estimates that are from 40 to 100 percent higher than the unsmoothed estimates for the Middle Classic calculated by Webster et al. (1992:189). However, they still indicate that Middle Classic Copán was a relatively small polity, with a population of approximately 2,400 by A.D. 550 and 6,400 by A.D. 650. The fact that population growth at Copán from the period A.D. 400-800 conforms well to exponential growth indicates that population growth in the valley was relatively unaffected by episodic events. Each of the three growth rates considered would have been sustainable in a preindustrial agrarian society.