A KALMAN FILTER APPROACH TO THE FORECASTING OF MONTHLY TIME SERIES AFFECTED BY Morris Festivals
- 1 July 1984
- journal article
- Published by Wiley in Journal of Time Series Analysis
- Vol. 5 (4) , 255-268
- https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9892.1984.tb00391.x
Abstract
Many economic time series are affected by the moving dates of festivals. In this paper a moving festival effect is defined and incorporated into a dynamic linear model which specifies how the parameters of several unobservable components of a time series evolve stochastically in time. The merits of this approach in comparison to other approaches are discussed and demonstrated using empirical data of three selected time series.Keywords
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