The Effects of Desiccation and Climatic Change on the Hydrology of the Aral Sea

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Abstract
Anthropogenic desiccation of the Aral Sea between 1960 and the mid-1990s resulted in a substantial modification of the land surface that changed air temperature in the surrounding region. During the desiccation interval, the net annual rate of precipitation minus evaporation (P − E) over the Aral Sea’s surface became more negative by ∼15%, with the greatest changes occurring during the summer months. In addition, Aral Sea surface temperatures (SST) increased by up to 5°C in the spring and summer and decreased by up to 4°C in the fall and winter. A series of coupled regional climate–lake model experiments were completed to evaluate if the observed hydrologic changes are caused by desiccation or instead reflect larger-scale climatic variability or change, or some combination of both. If the P − E changes are the result of desiccation, then a positive feedback exists that has amplified the anthropogenic perturbation to the hydrologic system. The effects of desiccation are examined by varying the sim... Abstract Anthropogenic desiccation of the Aral Sea between 1960 and the mid-1990s resulted in a substantial modification of the land surface that changed air temperature in the surrounding region. During the desiccation interval, the net annual rate of precipitation minus evaporation (P − E) over the Aral Sea’s surface became more negative by ∼15%, with the greatest changes occurring during the summer months. In addition, Aral Sea surface temperatures (SST) increased by up to 5°C in the spring and summer and decreased by up to 4°C in the fall and winter. A series of coupled regional climate–lake model experiments were completed to evaluate if the observed hydrologic changes are caused by desiccation or instead reflect larger-scale climatic variability or change, or some combination of both. If the P − E changes are the result of desiccation, then a positive feedback exists that has amplified the anthropogenic perturbation to the hydrologic system. The effects of desiccation are examined by varying the sim...

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