Impact of Light Duty Diesels on Visibility in California

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Abstract
This paper investigates the impact of light duty diesels on California visibility in the early 1990s. It is found that, without increased dieselization, there will be little change in statewide visibility levels from the late 1970s to the early 1990s. Visibility impacts from diesels are calculated for various scenarios of diesel use and particulate control. The likely dieselization (20%), do nothing particulate control (0.4 g/ml) scenario will change projected statewide emissions slightly for HC ( –2 % ) , NO x (+1%), SO x (+5%), and TSP (+1%) but will increase statewide emissions of elemental carbon (soot) by about 80%. Simplistic haze budget calculations indicate that this increase In soot emissions should reduce visibility about 10 to 25% in California. More precise and geographically detailed visibility calculations are performed by applying a lead tracer model to data for 86 California locations. The lead tracer model indicates that the likely dieselization, do nothing control scenario will reduce visibility by about 10 to 35%, with the greatest impacts occurring in and near urban areas. Actual visibility decreases for this scenario may even be much greater, 20 to 50%, because the analysis does not address two other significant factors: (1) increased SO4 –2 levels due to catalytic SO2 oxidation by soot and to higher SO2 emissions, and (2) increased soot emissions due to dieselization of the medium and heavy duty fleets.

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