Secular changes to the ENSO‐U.S. hurricane relationship

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Abstract
Analysis of the statistical relationship between annual U.S. hurricane activity and the El Niño‐Southern oscillation (ENSO) is performed. The legitimacy of considering annual U.S. hurricane counts as a Poisson process is checked. Then, Poisson regression is used to model the ENSO‐U.S. hurricane connection. A bivariate regression model verifies a significant negative correspondence between tropical Pacific sea‐surface temperature (SST) and U.S. hurricane activity. When equatorial SSTs are cold, U.S. hurricanes are more likely. Secular changes to the ENSO‐U.S. hurricane relationship are examined using moving regressions. A nonlinear downward trend in the relationship's strength is evident. Variations in sea‐level pressures over the extra‐tropical North Atlantic Ocean during months immediately prior to the hurricane season provide an explanation for a portion of this secular variability. Atmospheric synoptic conditions associated with the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) result in hurricanes tracking parallel to southern latitudes en route to the United States.