Forecasting and Verifying in a Field Research Project: DOPLIGHT '87

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Abstract
Verification of forecasts during research field experiments is discussed and exemplified using the DOPLIGHT '87 experiment. We stress the importance of forecast verification if forecasting is to be a serious component of the research. A direct comparison and contrast is done between forecasting for field research and forecasting in the operational sense, highlighting the differences between them. Ale verification of field research program forecasting is also different from that done in operations, as a result of those forecasting differences. DOPLIGHT '87 was a field project conducted jointly by the National Severe Storms Laboratory and the Oklahoma City National Weather Service Forecast Office, and is described in detail. During the experimental design, special attention was given to forecast design, to ensure that verification would be unambiguous and that the data collected would be appropriate for validating the forecasts. This a priori design of the forecasts to consider proper objective ver... Abstract Verification of forecasts during research field experiments is discussed and exemplified using the DOPLIGHT '87 experiment. We stress the importance of forecast verification if forecasting is to be a serious component of the research. A direct comparison and contrast is done between forecasting for field research and forecasting in the operational sense, highlighting the differences between them. Ale verification of field research program forecasting is also different from that done in operations, as a result of those forecasting differences. DOPLIGHT '87 was a field project conducted jointly by the National Severe Storms Laboratory and the Oklahoma City National Weather Service Forecast Office, and is described in detail. During the experimental design, special attention was given to forecast design, to ensure that verification would be unambiguous and that the data collected would be appropriate for validating the forecasts. This a priori design of the forecasts to consider proper objective ver...

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