Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS): A Case Study from the 2000–01 Field Season*

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Abstract
To support the forecasting needs of the United States Antarctic Program at McMurdo, Antarctica, a special numerical weather prediction program, the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS), was established for the 2000–01 field season. AMPS employs the Polar MM5, a version of the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) that has physics modifications for polar environments. This study assesses the performance of AMPS in forecasting an event of mesoscale cyclogenesis in the western Ross Sea during 13–17 January 2001. Observations indicate the presence of a complex trough having two primary mesoscale lows that merge to the east of Ross Island shortly after 0700 UTC 15 January. In contrast, AMPS predicts one primary mesoscale low throughout the event, incorrectly placing it until the 1800 UTC 15 January forecast, when the observed system carries a prominent signature in the initialization. The model reproduces the evolution of upper-level conditions in agreement ... Abstract To support the forecasting needs of the United States Antarctic Program at McMurdo, Antarctica, a special numerical weather prediction program, the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS), was established for the 2000–01 field season. AMPS employs the Polar MM5, a version of the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) that has physics modifications for polar environments. This study assesses the performance of AMPS in forecasting an event of mesoscale cyclogenesis in the western Ross Sea during 13–17 January 2001. Observations indicate the presence of a complex trough having two primary mesoscale lows that merge to the east of Ross Island shortly after 0700 UTC 15 January. In contrast, AMPS predicts one primary mesoscale low throughout the event, incorrectly placing it until the 1800 UTC 15 January forecast, when the observed system carries a prominent signature in the initialization. The model reproduces the evolution of upper-level conditions in agreement ...