Testing the Recession Theory as an Explanation for the Migration Turnaround

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Abstract
In this paper the so-called recession theory explanation for the decline of net migration to large metropolitan core areas of industrialized countries is tested with an econometric time-series model. In the explanation it is contended that the migration turnaround represents only a temporary fluctuation in the general trend of urban economic and demographic spatial concentration, caused by the business cycle downturns of the 1970s. Our results show that the migration turnaround cannot be attributed exclusively to these business cycle fluctuations. For many of the countries tested, the business cycle operated simultaneously with other factors suggested as explanations for the turnaround. We conclude that several explanations should be combined to build a theory of the migration turnaround.