Forecasting Births in Post-Transition Populations: Stochastic Renewal with Serially Correlated Fertility
- 1 September 1974
- journal article
- research article
- Published by JSTOR in Journal of the American Statistical Association
- Vol. 69 (347) , 607
- https://doi.org/10.2307/2285990
Abstract
Demographic forecasting techniques fail with post-transition populations dominated by fluctuating fertility; time series analysis of fertility can improve the forecasts. This article develops the optimal forecast and its variance for births to an age-structured population subject to serially correlated random fertility. The white noise, first-order autoregressive, second-order autoregressive and random walk fertility specifications are analyzed, each leading to different forecasts and very different variances, as shown by illustrative applications to U.S. data, 1917–1972.Keywords
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