Good and Bad Years: An Index of American Social, Economic, and Political Threat (1920–1986)

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Abstract
Information provided by 196 U.S. history professors, indicating the degree to which they considered each of the years from 1920 to 1986 threatening to the established order and way of life in America, was pooled to form a social, economic, and political threat (SEPT) index. Interrater reliability was high, and substantial test-retest reliability was evident for a selected subsample over a 6-month period. The index significantly correlated with 11 objective indices of threat, including the suicide rate, unemployment rate, rise and fall of common stocks, and number of military men on active duty. Several studies involving threat and authoritarianism were replicated and in some instances extended with the SEPT index (McCann & Stewin, 1984; Sales, 1972, 1973). The pseudo-archival SEPT index has utility when relatively global estimates of prevailing threat are required for historiometric research testing a diversity of hypotheses gleaned from psychological, sociological, historical, and political science theories.

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