Predicting bird species occurrences for conservation planning in Uganda

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Abstract
Tushabe, H., Pomeroy, D. & Reynolds, J. 2000. Predicting bird species Occurrences for conservation planning in Uganda. Ostrich 71 (1 & 2): 307–309. In Uganda, lack of adequate data on species' distributions poses a problem in laying strategies for conservation planning. Some of the data that exist are old and are therefore of uncertain value, given the pace of environmental changes. To overcome these problems, a logical prediction model was built based on species-habitat relationships to help predict the Occurrence of bird species in Uganda. This computer model makes use of field observations, from which species-habitat relationships are built; these are based upon biogeographical zones, an 80-category vegetation map, and human population densities. The model is then run to determine ‘suitable habitats’ for species of interest. The model has been tested for accuracy for the existing national parks, and high degrees of accuracy reaching around 90% have been obtained for those parks with many observations (unpublished data). In future, it is planned to include rainfall as an alternative to biogeographical zones. This paper examines the methods used in this research, gives a description of the model, the results that have been obtained; and assesses the usefulness of the model in conservation planning.